As the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League season progresses towards its climactic stages,
With a revamped 36-team league stage now concluded, the competition has entered its knockout rounds, and advanced analytics from the Opta supercomputer have provided a data-driven forecast on which teams stand the best chance of going all the way.
CAF president Patrice Motsepe has set high expectations for his fellow South African Benni McCarthy who was recently appointed Harambee Stars coach.
Barcelona & PSG emerge as frontrunners
According to the supercomputer, with a commanding 20% probability of lifting the trophy in May.
The Spanish giants also have an 80% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 42% likelihood of making the final.
Their recent resurgence has been fueled by Hansi Flick’s dynamic set up of the side, mixing a blend of experienced stars like with youthful talent like and which has placed them at the forefront of contention.
Kenya has been dealt a blow in its ambitious multi-billion Talanta stadium project earmarked for AFCON 2027 with audit revealing millions lost.
Despite years of heartbreak in their European ambitions, PSG boasts a 72% chance of making the semi-finals and a 36% probability of reaching the final, especially after knocking Liverpool out of contention.
Their upcoming clash against a resurgent Aston Villa will be a crucial test of their credentials.
Arsenal’s bold push for glory
The Premier League runners-up have shocked many by securing a 17% chance of winning the Champions League, placing them just behind Barcelona and PSG in the probability rankings.
and a 30% likelihood of making the final, despite the fact they are set to face Real Madrid and missing key players like Bukayo Saka to injury.
Harambee Stars coach Benni McCarthy has recalled one forgotten deender who has been out of the team since 2021.
However, the supercomputer’s verdict on their highly anticipated clash against Real Madrid has raised eyebrows.
While the reigning European champions have a storied history of stepping up in big moments, their 14% chance of winning the competition suggests they may not be the dominant force they once were.
With just a 47% chance of making the semi-finals and a 26% probability of reaching the final, Los Blancos face a daunting task in their pursuit of a record-extending 16th title.
Inter Milan and Bayern Munich also remain serious threats, with the Italian giants having a 16% chance of winning the title and a 57% probability of making the semi-finals.
Bayern Munich, on the other hand, has a 10% chance of triumphing in the tournament, but their 43% probability of making the semis suggests they might struggle against more dominant sides.
Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund round out the field, but their chances remain slim. Villa, despite making a strong impression in their return to European football, has only a 3% probability of winning the tournament, while Dortmund’s chances are even lower at 1%. Both teams, however, have the potential to cause upsets against the tournament’s elite.
With Barcelona and PSG emerging as the most statistically likely winners, the Champions League is set for an exciting and unpredictable climax.